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The Trend of British Economy

As an important trading entity, economic powerhouse and financial center, the British economy is the fifth largest economy in the world and one of the most economically developed and the highest standard of living in the world. In the past three decades, the government has substantially reduced state-owned assets and slowed down the development of social welfare programs. We can know more about the British economy

The UK’s GDP in 2016 was about 1,865.41 billion pounds, and real GDP increased 1.8% year on year. The growth rate in 2015 fell 0.4 percent from 2.2%. The risk of Britain falls out of the EU will be raised in 2017-2018,this is a big challenge that if they can finish all the negotiate in 2 years. We expect that the GDP of Britain will reach approximately 1,895.26 billion pounds in 2017, real GDP growth of around 1.6%, and growth rate will reach 0.2% lower than 2016.

The prospect of British economy analysis in 2018
Looking forward to 2018, the UK’s GDP will reach about 19198.9 billion pounds, real GDP will increase about 1.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate will fall 0.5 percent compare to 2016. We

predict that the rising of British economy will slow down to 1.5%. According to the official data, the downgrade is due to the slowdown in the growth of the industrial sector. In addition, as the main driver of the UK economy, household consumption also showed the lowest growth rate since 2012. The rising price is the main cause of shrinking consumption.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the UK construction business was in recession, the corporate investment stagnated, and household spending only experienced modest growth.With the limited growth, the rising inflation has squeezed household spending. The rate of UK unemployment was 4.4%, this is the first increase in two years. Chris Williamson, a chief economist at market research firm, said that the weakness in some areas of the UK economy in the fourth quarter of last year was worrying.

The foreign exchange trader points out that British economic growth is expected to slow down to 1.5% this year. However, this growth rate “It is not catastrophic anyway, but the UK will join the slowest growth ranks among the G7 with Japan and Italy. In the past few years, the UK was the fastest growing among the G7 countries.” In addition, traditional textile, shipbuilding and steel are weaker than other industries, according to the information I have, Sinosources, is the biggest B2B platform for steel in China, always do the business through their cross-border platform with oversea companies. Meanwhile Britain may progress cooperation with the Chinese companies like sinosources for the developement of the economy.

However, the Bank of England is relatively optimistic about the prospects for UK economic growth. Earlier, the Bank of England raised its forecast for British economic growth this year, they expected it will increase from 1.5% to 1.7%, but they stressed that this forecast is based on the UK’s successful “Brexit.” The Bank of England also said that if the UK economy maintains its current operating trend, the Bank of England’s benchmark interest rate hike may accelerate.

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, a major problem that has long plagued the British economy is the lack of productivity growth. However, the latest data indicates that there is a positive signal to mitigate this problem. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, productivity in the UK has improved since the second half of last year. Hourly production increased 0.9% in the third quarter of last year, and hourly production increased by 0.8% in the

fourth quarter since the British economy experienced a recession in 2008. The two quarters with the strongest growth in productivity continued. At the same time, wages increased better than we expected. In the fourth quarter of last year, British income increased 2.5%, excluding bonuses.

The impact of “Brexit”

The “Brexit” negotiations remain the biggest uncertainties in the British economic prospect. The population from the EU is the human resources of various industries in the UK, including both the financial industry and the labor force of labor-intensive industries. The latest data shows that the talent flow from EU to the UK is affected by the Br-exit. Nikola White, the head of international immigration statistics of the ONS, said that the Br-exit may be the determining factor in EU migration.

 

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